Key Highlights

  • WTI crude oil traded near US$92.70 a barrel during today's session, down 1.11%.
  • US commercial crude stocks were 424.1 million barrels in the week ending October 2.
  • EIA forecasts record 2026 US crude output of 13.8 million barrels a day.
  • The IEA said over 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output was shut in.

WTI Slips After a Three-Session Rise

WTI crude oil traded near US$92.70 a barrel during today's session, down US$1.04, or 1.11%, according to market data. The contract is still up 3.65% on the week but down 8.57% on the month, and it remains 61.45% higher since the start of the year. Brent traded near US$105.10, a premium of about US$12.40.

Diesel Deal Against Geopolitical Risk

Prices dipped after three sessions of gains as traders weighed Russian diesel exports against rising geopolitical tension. President Trump announced a Russian diesel deal of more than 300,000 tonnes, with 500,000 tonnes more in November and a million tonnes soon after. A bipartisan group of senators urged him to cancel it, and Ukraine's president said Russia had broken the announced energy ceasefire.

The risks pushing the other way are in the Middle East. An attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on October 10 killed 13 people; the Iran-backed Houthis claimed it, and Trump said Washington may join Saudi air strikes on the group.

A Tight Market With Gulf Supply Shut In

The International Energy Agency said more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output was still shut in. Observed global stocks fell 95 million barrels in August, cumulative draws since February total 507 million barrels, and the agency forecast 2026 demand down 2.5 million barrels a day.

The US Energy Information Administration assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter and forecasts Brent at US$105 a barrel for that period. The IEA noted that if Strait of Hormuz flows resume, the market could move into surplus toward the end of 2026.

US Stocks and Output

EIA weekly data put US commercial crude stocks at 424.1 million barrels in the week ending October 2, down from 427.3 million. Strategic Petroleum Reserve holdings were 283.0 million barrels and distillate stocks were 105.1 million barrels. EIA forecasts record 2026 US crude output of 13.8 million barrels a day.

Producers: Why Hedges and Refining Matter

Higher crude helps producers only after volumes, hedges and costs. Woodside (ASX:WDS) reported a 20% rise in realized price to US$74 per barrel of oil equivalent in the first half, yet production fell 13% and hedge settlements cost US$419 million in cash. Santos (ASX:STO) saw first-half profit fall as lower realized LNG prices and higher costs outweighed higher volumes.

Suncor (NYSE:SU) is integrated, and its second-quarter commentary cited record refinery throughput and downstream funds flow. BP (NYSE:BP) and ExxonMobil Holdings (NYSE:XOM) are integrated majors with upstream, refining and trading arms. Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE) is mainly a gas producer, but its second-quarter release shows a US$92.79 NYMEX oil average against US$81.37 realized including derivatives.

Calendar: EIA Report on October 15 and BP and ExxonMobil Results

EIA's weekly petroleum report is due on Thursday, October 15, delayed by the October 12 federal closure, and its next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for November 10. ExxonMobil's third-quarter results are listed for October 23 and BP reports on October 30.

In short, WTI is caught between a possible easing in Russian diesel supply and persistent Middle East risk, with inventories tight enough to keep both outcomes in play.