Key Highlights

  • Of 32 regional and community banks that disclosed on October 22, 24 beat EPS estimates, seven missed and one matched, as calculated from disclosed and estimated EPS.
  • Regions disclosed adjusted earnings per share of $0.73 relative to projections of $0.66, and Fifth Third disclosed $1.13 against $1.09, on October 16.
  • Valley National recorded record net income of $206.3 million and a net interest margin of 3.28%, up from 3.20%.
  • Popular raised its 2026 net charge-off outlook to 80 to 90 basis points from 55 to 70 basis points.
  • Columbia Banking's tangible book value per share declined to $18.10 from $19.22 during the second quarter.

Regional Bank Earnings: Which Banks Have Beaten Estimates So Far?

Results for the third quarter for regional banks have largely cleared the bar. On Friday, October 16, Regions (NYSE:RF) disclosed adjusted earnings per share of $0.73 compared with projections of $0.66, and Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB) disclosed $1.13 against $1.09. Among 32 regional and community banks that disclosed on Thursday, October 22, 24 beat EPS estimates, seven declined short and one matched, as calculated from disclosed and estimated figures.

The largest beats came from the smaller names. Amerant (NASDAQ:AMTB) disclosed $0.65 relative to projections of $0.57, Byline (NYSE:BY) disclosed $0.94 against $0.85, and Popular (NASDAQ:BPOP) disclosed $4.21 against $3.88. The misses comprised Hilltop (NYSE:HTH), at $0.44 against $0.64, and First Interstate BancSystem (NASDAQ:FIBK), at $0.65 against $0.69.

Huntington (NASDAQ:HBAN) disclosed $0.38, consistent with projections, alongside a net interest margin of 3.25% against 3.21% during the second quarter.

Regional Bank Margins: Is Net Interest Income Still Expanding?

Margins largely widened as older assets repriced. Valley (NASDAQ:VLY) recorded a net interest margin of 3.28% against 3.20%, with record net income of $206.3 million. Columbia Banking System (NASDAQ:COLB) hit 4.11% from 3.93%, aided by a $1.5 billion reduction in wholesale funding.

There were exceptions. Popular's margin edged lower to 3.63% from 3.66%, and First BanCorp's (NYSE:FBP) declined to 4.73% from 4.87%. Deposits were additionally uneven: WSFS (NASDAQ:WSFS) disclosed client deposits down 3% from the second quarter, Amerant disclosed a 1.3% decline, and Regions disclosed average deposits down 1.2%.

Tangible book value came under pressure at some banks from unrealized securities losses and buybacks. Huntington's declined to $9.47 from $9.65, and Columbia's declined to $18.10 from $19.22, even as Columbia completed $199 million of repurchases in the quarter.

Regional Bank Credit: Are Charge-Offs Starting to Rise?

Credit was the dispersion factor. Net charge-offs climbed to 0.28% at Valley from 0.17% and to 0.31% at Huntington from 0.25%, which Huntington tied to one commercial loan. With the quarter including a $74 million commercial inflow to nonperforming loans and a $34 million partial charge-off, Popular's charge-off ratio improved to 0.73% from 1.05%, but it raised its full-year outlook to 80 to 90 basis points.

Real estate continues to be the sensitive area. Associated Banc-Corp (NYSE:ASB) disclosed charge-offs of 0.19% and a 0.50% nonaccrual ratio, up from 0.41%. Two further reports are due on Friday, October 23: First Citizens BancShares (NASDAQ:FCNCA) in advance of the market opens, and Flagstar Financial (NYSE:FLG), which has a large multifamily and commercial real estate book.

Regional Bank Scorecard: What Comes Next in the Reporting Season?

Attention shifts to the remaining small and mid-sized banks reporting next week, where the same measures apply: margin direction, deposit trends, charge-off ratios, criticized loans, buyback pace and merger costs. Guidance for 2027, where given, will show whether the margin gains seen so far are anticipated to hold.