Key Highlights

● COMEX copper traded near $6.50 per pound on Friday, October 2, 2026, up 0.30% in delayed trading.

● Chile’s August output fell 12.8% year on year to 369,500 tonnes, the lowest monthly figure since February 2011.

● Unions at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine voted 98.73% for potential strike action, and government mediation has not resolved the dispute.

● Freeport’s Grasberg reached 69,000 tons per day in June, with second-half copper sales expected over 20% above the first half.

COMEX copper futures traded near $6.50 per pound on Friday, October 2, 2026, up 0.30% in delayed trading, even as the metal hovered near a two-week low after mixed Chinese data and fresh strike risk in Chile. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), the US producer whose Grasberg mine is ramping up, sits at the supply-growth end of a market where Chilean output is falling.

A Quiet Quote Near a Two-Week Low

Each COMEX contract covers 25,000 pounds and is priced in US dollars per pound, while the London Metal Exchange quotes per metric tonne. At roughly 2,204.6 pounds to the tonne, $6.50 per pound equals about $14,330 per tonne. The LME three-month price was $14,416.50 per tonne on September 30, down 0.1%, a different date and contract basis, so the gap of about $86 per tonne is only a rough guide.

A separate reading showed $6.50 per pound on October 1, down 1.26% over 24 hours in a range of $6.44 to $6.61. Copper is down 1.21% over the past month but 29.12% higher than a year earlier. Its 52-week range of $4.8160 to $6.9285 per pound keeps it in the upper part of the yearly band despite recent softness. In August, COMEX traded roughly $400 above the LME three-month price amid tariff-related shipments to the United States.

Chile Supply Risks Meet Cautious Macro Signals

The latest Chinese data are mixed. Industrial profits grew 15.7% in the first eight months, slower than the previous 17.6%, while Manufacturing returned to growth in September with the purchasing managers’ index at 50.1.

Supply is the tighter side. Chile’s August output fell to 369,500 tonnes, down 12.8% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly figure since February 2011. Unions at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine voted 98.73% in favor of potential strike action, and government mediation has not resolved the dispute. Shanghai copper inventories fell to their lowest since January 2024, though Chinese markets were closed for Golden Week.

Offsetting this, a stronger US Dollar Index at 101.45 and a 10-year Treasury Yield of 5.29% capped gains as of October 1. Tight physical supply and cautious macro sentiment together help explain why copper is holding near $6.50.

Producers on Different Paths

Freeport-McMoRan reported in its second-quarter results on July 24 that Grasberg reached 69,000 tons per day in June. Second-half copper sales are expected to run over 20% above the first half, and the 2026 unit net cash cost is $1.90 per pound. Management expects the ramp-up to lift volumes.

Antofagasta, the London-listed Chilean producer, tells the opposite story. Its half-year results on August 13 showed copper output down 9% to about 285,000 tonnes, and it cut 2026 guidance to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes, citing a July storm at Los Pelambres and weaker Centinela output. Pre-tax profit still rose about 72% to roughly $2 billion, and the shares fell about 5.3% after the guidance cut, which shows that production news can move equities independently of the copper price.

Canada’s Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK) produced 135,900 tonnes of copper in the second quarter, up 25% from a year earlier, and guides to 455,000-530,000 tonnes for 2026, per its July 22 release. Australia’s BHP (NYSE:BHP) was reported to have produced about two million tonnes of copper for a second year, though copper is only part of the diversified miner’s profile alongside iron ore.

What Could Move Copper Next

Upside risks center on supply. A Centinela strike, further weather or operational disruption, or continued drawdowns in Shanghai stocks could support prices. Downside risks include weaker Chinese Demand if profit growth keeps slowing, a firmer dollar and higher yields, and any easing of Chilean labor tension. For producers, higher prices help margins, but output shortfalls such as those at Antofagasta can offset the benefit.

Trade policy is a further risk for COMEX specifically. The August premium over the LME was linked to US-bound shipments ahead of potential tariffs, and any change in that outlook could widen or narrow the gap between New York and London pricing.

The items to watch are the Centinela strike mediation, the reopening of Chinese markets after Golden Week, the next Shanghai inventory readings, the dollar index and the Treasury yield. Freeport’s Grasberg ramp-up, Antofagasta’s guidance and Teck’s quarterly output will show whether supply is recovering.