Key Highlights

● Copper fell 2.13% to $6.4411 a pound in Friday's session.

● COMEX warehouses hold 718,000 tonnes, roughly double the previous record.

● Global visible copper inventories rose 83% from a year earlier to 1.04 million tonnes.

● Freeport's third-quarter outlook assumed a realised copper price above $6.50 per pound.

Copper fell 2.13% to US$6.4411 per pound in Friday's session on 30 October, sliding for a second straight session as disappointing Earnings updates triggered another sell-off in technology and AI stocks. The drop matters to producers such as Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), the largest US-listed pure copper producer, whose Revenue moves with every cent on the COMEX screen.

The price is down US$0.14 on the day, 0.61% on the week and 0.60% on the month, but it remains 13.39% higher since the start of the year and 26.64% above a year ago. That leaves copper far above where it stood a year ago, a sign of how strong the underlying market has been even after two lower sessions.

Two Forces Pulling Copper Apart

Copper is caught between a market that treats it as a technology metal and a physical market that is short of it. On the screen, falling tech shares and rate hike worries are pushing the price down. In warehouses and ports, supplies outside the United States are tight, and buyers are paying more for metal in China. The result is a price that falls on the day but stays well above where it stood a year ago.

The AI Link

Copper plays a crucial role in the global AI expansion, through its use in data centres and power infrastructure. That makes the price unusually sensitive to technology sentiment. When AI-related stocks sell off, as they did this week on disappointing earnings, traders mark down copper too.

Investors have also grown increasingly concerned about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later this year following hot PCE Inflation data and persistent energy-driven price pressures. Higher rates weigh on growth-sensitive metals, and copper is one of the most growth-sensitive of all.

American Warehouses Are Filling Up

The most important structural story is in the United States. COMEX warehouses held 718,000 tonnes of copper in October, about 69% of visible exchange stocks across the London Metal Exchange, COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and roughly double the previous record in the series. Global visible inventories reached 1.04 million tonnes, up 83% from a year earlier.

The build-up reflects uncertainty over US Import duties. Refined cathodes were excluded from a 50% Tariff on 30 July 2025, but possible refined-copper tariffs of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028 remain open, with no decision published. Traders have been redirecting shipments toward American warehouses, which reduces availability elsewhere. Outside the United States, stocks held on the London Metal Exchange and in Shanghai are 11% below their 2015 to 2024 average, so the tightness is real even if it is hidden by the American pile.

A tariff decision is the next major catalyst. Duties could keep metal in the United States, while abandoning them could return copper to world markets and pressure prices.

China Pays Up for Metal

Chinese Demand shows mixed signals. Nationwide mainstream inventories fell 24,900 tonnes in a week to about 80,000 tonnes, yet high prices and high premiums have held back Downstream buying, with month-end consumption weakening. The Yangshan copper premium, a key indicator of demand for imported metal, surged to its highest level in more than a decade. Concentrate shipments from Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi mine to China fell by about 70% over two weeks because of border upgrades. Peruvian output in August was 230,676 tonnes, down 5% on the year.

What It Means for Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport's third-quarter operational update showed production of about 830 million pounds of copper, an expected realised copper price above US$6.50 per pound and unit net cash costs near US$2.10 per pound. At today's price of US$6.44, the gap over costs is still wide. Its revenue depends on operations as well as on the price: Grasberg mill throughput was running at about 67% of the level before September 2025, with 80% of capacity expected by mid-2027.

Other US-listed names have different exposure. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) mixes copper with iron ore, and its consolidated copper production of 205,000 tonnes was flat on the year, with 2026 guidance of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes unchanged. Oyu Tolgoi output rose 27%. Newmont (NYSE:NEM) produces copper as a by-product of gold, and its guidance assumed US$5.00 per pound, below today's market.

Copper Watch: Tariff Decisions, the Fed and the Bagdad Expansion

Any announcement on US refined-copper tariffs would move the COMEX price relative to London. The Federal Reserve's December meeting, Chinese inventory and premium data, and Freeport's targeted year-end 2026 Investment decision on the Bagdad expansion are the other markers.

A tariff decision that keeps metal in the United States could widen the premium of COMEX over the London Metal Exchange, while abandoning duties would do the reverse. A prolonged Supply disruption, such as a slower Grasberg recovery, could tighten markets further. A further rise in US interest rates or weaker risk appetite tied to AI spending would weigh on prices. If Chinese downstream demand stays subdued at today's premiums, tighter local stocks may not translate into higher prices.