Methanol prices in China fell to 2,940 CNY per tonne on June 15, 2026, down 7.95% from the previous day, as a peace agreement between the United States and Iran eased concerns over Middle East supply disruptions that had pushed prices sharply higher earlier in the conflict.

Key Highlights

  • Methanol fell to 2,940 CNY/T on June 15, 2026, down 7.95% from the previous day.
  • Prices have fallen 4.23% over the past month but remain 17.41% higher than a year ago.
  • Iran is estimated to supply roughly half of China's imported methanol.
  • The US-Iran agreement includes plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by June 19.

Methanol futures in China extended their decline on June 15, falling 7.95% on the day to 2,940 CNY per tonne, according to contract for difference trading that tracks the benchmark Chinese market for the chemical. Despite the drop, prices remain 17.41% above year-ago levels, reflecting the scale of the run-up in methanol prices since the conflict between the United States and Iran began earlier this year.

The decline follows confirmation that the US and Iran have reached an agreement to end their war, with provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove restrictions on Iranian exports. Iran ranks among the world's largest methanol producers, and industry estimates suggest the country supplies roughly half of China's imported methanol, making Chinese methanol pricing particularly sensitive to disruptions in Iranian export flows.

Earlier in the conflict, methanol prices in China climbed to their highest levels since October 2021, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipments from Iran and tightened availability across Asian markets. The supply-driven rally also lifted prices for related chemical products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, and synthetic rubber, as buyers sought alternative feedstocks amid uncertainty over Middle East flows.

With the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen by June 19 under the terms of the agreement, market participants are now pricing in the prospect of restored Iranian methanol exports to China, reversing some of the supply-driven gains accumulated since the conflict began. Domestic factors have also played a role in the recent softening, with coastal methanol inventories in China expected to stabilize as downstream operating rates improve.

For Methanex Corporation, the world's largest producer and marketer of methanol with production assets across North America and beyond, swings in Chinese spot pricing serve as a closely watched signal for global methanol economics, even though much of its own volume is sold under separate contract terms. LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB), which produces methanol alongside a broader slate of petrochemicals, faces similar exposure to the feedstock cost shifts driving the recent volatility.

Despite the sharp single-day decline, methanol prices remain well above pre-conflict levels on a year-over-year basis, underscoring that the recent pullback represents an unwinding of a geopolitical risk premium rather than a return to the oversupplied conditions seen in parts of 2025. Downstream demand from sectors including formaldehyde, acetic acid, and olefins production will likely be a key factor in determining how much of the recent price gains are retraced in the coming weeks as Iranian supply normalizes.