Key Highlights

  • Traders are pricing a 73% probability the Nasdaq-100 closes between 29,000 and 29,099.99.
  • The 29,100 to 29,199.99 range is priced at just 22% probability.
  • Payout odds stand at 1.29x and 4.51x, respectively.
  • The market has drawn $155,289 in volume across 30 total markets.

A range-based prediction market is pricing the specific band in which the Nasdaq-100 will close at 4pm EDT today, with traders assigning a 73% probability to the 29,000-29,099.99 range. This type of contract differs from the simpler "above/below" threshold markets tracked elsewhere by requiring the close to land within a defined, roughly 100-point band.

What Happened

That range carries payout odds of 1.29x, reflecting the high implied probability, while the next range up, 29,100 to 29,199.99, is priced at just 22% probability with 4.51x odds.

Combined volume across the range contracts stood at $155,289, spread across 30 total markets, part of a broader set of narrower price bands traders can select from around today's expected close.

Market Reaction

The concentration of probability in the lower range, 73% versus 22%, indicates traders see the index as more likely to settle in the bottom half of the two ranges shown.

Range-based contracts like these differ from simple "above/below" thresholds in that they require the close to land within a specific band, which typically results in lower probabilities and higher payout odds than a broad directional bet at a similar strike level.

Outlook

The contract resolves at 4pm EDT today alongside the other Nasdaq-100 closing-level markets, with settlement determined by which of the two disclosed ranges actually contains the index's official close.

What is the highest-probability range for the Nasdaq-100's close?

The 29,000-29,099.99 range, priced at 73% probability.

What are the payout odds for that range?

1.29x.

How does the next range compare?

The 29,100-29,199.99 range is priced at just 22% probability, with 4.51x odds.