Key Highlights

  • Traders are pricing a 66% probability the S&P 500 closes at or above 7,500 at 4pm EDT.
  • A close at or above 7,505 is priced at 39% probability.
  • Payout odds stand at 1.46x and 2.59x, respectively.
  • The market has drawn $419,915 in volume across 60 total markets.

A live prediction market is pricing where the S&P 500 will close at 4pm EDT today, with traders assigning a 66% probability to the index finishing at or above 7,500.

What Happened

The "7,500 or above" contract carries payout odds of 1.46x, while the higher "7,505 or above" threshold is priced at 39% probability with 2.59x odds.

Combined volume across these index-level contracts stood at $419,915, spread across 60 total markets tied to the S&P 500's closing level today. That 60-market total reflects the broader ladder of strike prices traders can choose from around today's close, with the 7,500 and 7,505 levels representing two specific thresholds within that ladder.

Market Reaction

The 66% probability on the lower threshold, versus 39% on the higher one, suggests the index was trading closer to the 7,500 level than to 7,505 as of the snapshot time.

The payout odds attached to each threshold, 1.46x for the 66% probability contract and 2.59x for the 39% one, illustrate the inverse relationship between implied probability and payout that is standard across these binary, event-based contracts.

Outlook

The contract resolves at 4pm EDT today, when the S&P 500's official close will determine the settlement of both threshold markets. As with other same-day closing-level contracts, the implied probabilities are likely to move toward 100% or 0% as the settlement time approaches and the index's trajectory becomes clearer.

What probability are traders assigning to the S&P 500 closing above 7,500?

66%, with payout odds of 1.46x.

What is the probability for the higher 7,505 threshold?

39%, with payout odds of 2.59x.

When does this market resolve?

At 4pm EDT today, based on the S&P 500's official close.