Key Highlights

  • Traders are pricing a 70% probability the S&P 500 closes between 7,500 and 7,524.9999.
  • The 7,475 to 7,499.9999 range is priced at 36% probability.
  • Payout odds stand at 1.42x and 2.73x, respectively.
  • The market has drawn $54,729 in volume across 30 total markets.

A range-based prediction market is pricing the specific band in which the S&P 500 will close at 4pm EDT today, with traders assigning a 70% probability to the 7,500-7,524.9999 range, a narrower contract than the broader directional thresholds tracked separately for the same index.

What Happened

That range carries payout odds of 1.42x, while the range just below it, 7,475 to 7,499.9999, is priced at 36% probability with 2.73x odds.

Combined volume across the range contracts stood at $54,729, spread across 30 total markets, the smallest volume figure among the index-level contracts covered in this snapshot.

Market Reaction

The higher probability assigned to the 7,500-7,524.9999 range suggests traders see the index as more likely to settle just above the 7,500 mark than just below it.

The relatively modest trading volume on this specific range contract, compared with the broader S&P 500 closing-level markets, suggests narrower range bets of this kind attract a smaller pool of participants than simple directional thresholds.

Outlook

The contract resolves at 4pm EDT today alongside the other S&P 500 closing-level markets, with settlement determined by which of the two disclosed ranges actually contains the index's official close. As with the equivalent Nasdaq-100 range contract, the odds are likely to shift further toward certainty as the index approaches its final trading minutes.

What is the highest-probability range for the S&P 500's close?

The 7,500-7,524.9999 range, priced at 70% probability.

What are the payout odds for that range?

1.42x.

How does the range below compare?

The 7,475-7,499.9999 range is priced at 36% probability, with 2.73x odds.