Key Highlights

● Applied Materials reports after the bell Thursday with China export risk in focus.

● Applied is expected to report Revenue of about $10.25 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.02.

● Options were pricing a move of about 7.9% in the shares.

● Cisco and Cerebras also report after the bell on Thursday.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) reports after the bell on Thursday with a question it did not have a week ago: whether the scandal engulfing Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s chief executive will push Washington to tighten technology exports to China. Chinese authorities urged the US not to use the allegations about Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to justify further export restrictions.

Applied is expected to report revenue of about $10.25 billion and adjusted Earnings of $4.02 per share, with Options pricing a move of about 7.9% in the shares.

How the Nvidia saga reaches chip equipment

The reports say Nvidia's board has been weighing whether to remove Huang after a probe into his ties to a woman whom US intelligence reportedly believes is a Chinese spy. None of the allegations or any Leadership change had been independently confirmed, and no board decision had been announced. Nvidia's board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised.

The China angle widened on Thursday. Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) fell more than 6% in Hong Kong amid reports, not verified, that it accessed Nvidia computing power through a firm called Megaspeed and others. When questions arise about Chinese access to US technology, chip-equipment makers tend to be among the first companies investors consider exposed to new rules.

Applied knows the risk well. A year ago, it told investors it expected weaker spending by Chinese customers in 2026 because of tighter US export curbs, according to a report. Tonight's report is the first full look at how that forecast played out over the year.

What Applied does and why it matters

Applied Materials is the largest US maker of equipment used to manufacture semiconductors, including tools for deposition, etching and inspection. Its customers include the world's leading foundries, memory makers and logic chipmakers. It is a member of the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500, and its results set the tone for peers such as Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) and KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC).

The Demand backdrop has been strong. The PHLX Semiconductor index rose 5.7% on Wednesday, with every component higher. AI-driven capacity additions at foundries and memory makers have supported equipment orders. But on Thursday, the chip complex was softer pre-market, with Lam Research down about 1.9%.

China Exposure and Guidance Frame the Report

Investors will focus on three things: Applied's guidance for the coming quarter, the share of revenue from China, and any commentary on how export policy could evolve. A forecast that holds up despite China headwinds could reassure the sector. Signs that China spending is falling faster, or that new restrictions are being discussed, could weigh on the whole equipment group.

There are counterpoints. Applied has spent years diversifying, and AI-related demand from Taiwan, South Korea and the US could offset weaker Chinese orders. And export policy changes would require government action, which has not been announced.

Rates are a background risk. The 10-year Treasury Yield sat near 5.00% this morning, and markets price high odds of a December Fed hike. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Cerebras (NASDAQ:CBRS) also report after the bell. Nvidia's Nov. 17 earnings will follow, and any comment there on China could feed back into the equipment trade.