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Why did the odds of an October 28 Fed rate hike drop from 50% to 38% in a single day?

The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:SHY) is sensitive to expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy rate, and those expectations changed fast. CME FedWatch showed a 38% chance of a quarter-point hike on October 28, versus 50% a day earlier. Two inputs drove …

Vinay Lochav | 01 October 2026

Which Fed policymaker is still forecasting one more rate hike this year while markets price just a 38% chance for October?

Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, said inflation still needs to be contained and that he expects one more rate hike this year. The comment arrived the morning after softer August inflation data cut market odds of an October 28 hike to 38%. His …

Vinay Lochav | 01 October 2026

Can a 90,000 private-payroll gain, well above the 70,000 economists expected, keep the Fed on its rate-hike path?

ADP said private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, comfortably beating the 70,000 forecast from an economist survey. ADP said job creation rebounded after a three-month slowdown and that pay growth stayed solid. August was revised to 36,000, so hiring accelerated after a slowdown. …

Vinay Lochav | 01 October 2026

What does a four-week jobless-claims average of 203,600 tell us on a Thursday packed with data and earnings?

Initial jobless claims measure new applications forUnemploymentbenefits and offer a weekly read on layoffs. The four-week average of 203,600 as of September 18 is low by historical standards, which suggests employers are holding on to workers even as hiring is uneven. The SPDR Dow …

Vinay Lochav | 01 October 2026

Can a jobs report forecast at 90,000, down from 162,000, still keep the Fed's rate-hike debate alive on Friday?

The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) holds many companies whose valuations depend on interest rates, so the jobs report matters to it. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise about 90,000 in September, after a strong 162,000 gain in August and a very weak July. An …

Vinay Lochav | 01 October 2026

Why is the dollar index sitting near 101.80, its yearly high, while gold has slid 4.7% in a month?

The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA:UUP) follows the dollar against a basket of currencies, and the dollar has been supported by elevated Treasury yields. The 10-year yield sits near 5.2%, and the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16. Hawkish remarks …

Vinay Lochav | 01 October 2026

US Markets Navigate Elevated Yields, Inflation Concerns and Fed Rate Hike Expectations

US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as rising Treasury yields and elevated oil prices pressured equities. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Dow lost 130 points, while theNasdaqgained 0.2%.Inflationconcerns, fiscal deficits and hawkish Fed comments weighed on sentiment. Bank stocks declined, while technology …

Team Kalkine | 29 September 2026

Can a 16.5 Percent Nasdaq Rally Keep Running After Its First Record Since June Faded Within a Week?

The record session was driven by semiconductors. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) rose 4.9 percent. Intel gained 12 percent and Arm Holdings surged 17 percent. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) climbed 10 percent to an all-time high, lifting itsMarket Valuepast USD 1 trillion after the …

Vinay Lochav | 29 September 2026

Can the Dow Close a 5.3 Percent Gap to Its August Record While 5.2 Percent Yields Weigh on Its Heaviest Stocks?

The Dow's September has been a grind. It fell about 2 percent in the week ended September 18, its worst week since March and a third straight weekly loss. It then snapped that streak with a 0.28 percent gain in the week ended September …

Vinay Lochav | 29 September 2026

Is a 7.7 Percent Slide From Its August Record the End of the Russell 2000's 2026 Lead Over Large Caps?

Smaller companies tend to carry moreDebtrelative to earnings and refinance more often, so a 10-yearTreasury Yieldabove 5.2 percent lands hardest on them. The Fed's September projections showed 12 of 18 policymakers expecting another 25 basis point hike this year, lifting the median 2026 and …

Vinay Lochav | 29 September 2026
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