Dow futures rose while Nasdaq futures fell as big banks opened Earnings season and a 5.5% plunge in South Korea's Kospi hit memory chip stocks. Goldman Sachs jumps, JPMorgan misses, UnitedHealth lifts its outlook, and the IMF warns on bond yields and circular AI financing.

1. BANKS: Goldman Sachs Jumps 4% on a Revenue Beat While JPMorgan Posts Its First Profit Miss in Nearly 3 Years

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) rose 3.8% pre-market after third-quarter revenue of $18.68 billion beat the $16.71 billion expected and profit of $17.01 per share topped $13.02, with equities revenue up 72% to $6.44 billion. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) earned $5.57 per share against $5.85 expected, its first miss since late 2023, as Investment Banking fees fell 8% from the second quarter. Its shares reversed a near 3% drop to rise about 1% after it raised 2026 net interest income guidance to $106.2 billion from $105.5 billion. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) fell nearly 1% as revenue of $21.87 billion and net interest income of $12.52 billion missed, despite earnings of $1.87 per share against $1.85. Citigroup (NYSE:C) slipped about 0.5% despite earnings of $2.85 per share against $2.66.

  • Volatile markets and the Fed's September hike lifted trading desks, while slowing IPOs cut fees, with Citi's Equity Underwriting revenue down 19% from the second quarter.
  • Risk note: the KBW Bank index is down more than 12% from its August highs, and higher yields could push borrowers out of Credit as Wells Fargo's provisions rose to $1.03 billion.

2. MEMORY CHIPS: Kospi Drops 5.5% and Memory Stocks Slide as China's CXMT Plans a More Powerful Chip by Year-End

South Korea's Kospi fell 5.5% to its lowest since July 31 on valuation concerns and competition from China, after CXMT said this week it plans to release a new, more powerful chip by the end of 2026. In US pre-market trading, SK hynix's US-listed shares, Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) and Seagate (NASDAQ:STX) fell more than 5%, Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) 4.6% and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) 3.7%. Memory declines pushed the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 lower on Monday even as the Dow rose more than 195 points.

  • The slide shows how much of the memory rally rests on valuations that a new Chinese competitor can quickly test.
  • Risk note: CXMT's year-end chip is the next test, and the Kospi's drop to a 2-month low suggests the unwind in Asia may reach US-listed names again.

3. UNITEDHEALTH: Raises Its 2026 Profit Outlook for the Third Time This Year as Its Medical Cost Ratio Improves to 88.4%

UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) rose about 2% to 3% pre-market after adjusted earnings of $4.69 per share beat the $4.14 expected, on revenue of $112.69 billion against $111.40 billion. It now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of at least $20.50 per share, up from $19.50 to $20. The medical cost ratio was 88.4%, helped by a $610 million reserve benefit, as the insurer shrank membership and exited unprofitable contracts, with 935,000 members leaving Medicare Advantage since the end of 2025. Revenue fell from $113.16 billion a year earlier. The CFO said medical costs "continue to be elevated versus historical norms," with the No Surprises Act dispute process adding at least 100 basis points.

  • Acute hospital admissions among members fell 15% while home health admissions rose 10%, which management says shows value-based care moving patients to lower-cost settings.
  • Risk note: the Margin recovery rests on shrinking membership and exiting contracts, so initial 2027 guidance on the Earnings Call is the next test.

4. PRE-MARKET MOVERS: J&J Falls 2% Despite a Beat and a Spin-Off Plan, Domino's Slips on Slowing Sales, Syndax Plunges 14% and Six Flags Drops 7%

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) fell about 2% despite adjusted earnings of $2.59 per share against $2.54 and revenue of $25.4 billion against $25.28 billion, with Tremfya sales up 68% to $2.4 billion. It targets mid-2027 for spinning off its DePuy Synthes orthopedics unit, while MedTech sales rose 2.5% to $8.6 billion, below the $8.71 billion expected. Domino's (NASDAQ:DPZ) fell nearly 3% as US same-store sales rose only 0.3%, in line with consensus, in its first report under new CEO Joe Jordan. Syndax (NASDAQ:SNDX) fell 14% after axatilimab missed its primary endpoint in a Phase 2 trial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Six Flags (NYSE:FUN) fell 7% after a man died in a roller coaster incident in Georgia.

  • Tremfya's rise is replacing sales lost to generic competition on Stelara, which fell 54% to $716 million.
  • Risk note: J&J's CFO said Middle East sales are hurt as budgets shift to defense, and Domino's US same-store growth slowed from 5.2% a year ago.

5. IMF: Fund Warns Bond Yields Could Rise in a "Disorderly" Way and Calls Circular AI Financing a "Triple Whammy" Risk

The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report warned of "a sharp rise in sovereign bond yields" as inflation, Debt and AI borrowing strain bond markets, with yields in several advanced economies at multidecade highs. Hyperscalers' share of global investment-grade bond issuance rose to 10% from under 1% since 2024, and hedge funds' share of Treasuries rose to about 9% from about 4% in 2022, leaving the market "susceptible to a disorderly unwind." Since 2023, 14 disclosed AI deals channeled about $300 billion of equity and $650 billion of debt into weaker AI firms in exchange for $1.4 trillion of future revenue commitments. Separately, its World Economic Outlook urged "urgent" Deficit cuts, with net borrowing in rich countries this year the highest since 2021.

  • An IMF official said that if AI monetization falls short, equity would lose value, debt would be hard to service and revenue commitments might not materialize.
  • Risk note: the exposure clusters in a handful of AI firms, so trouble at one of them could spread through the circular deals.

6. BONDS/INFLATION: Yields Fall 5 Basis Points as Oil Slides on a Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Ahead of Wednesday's CPI

In the first trading since Monday's holiday, the 10-year Treasury Yield fell more than 5 basis points to about 5.19%, the 30-year 4 basis points to about 5.56% and the 2-year more than 2 basis points to about 4.77%. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.49% to $92.34 on the prospect of more Russian diesel after a US-brokered energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. OPEC raised its 2027 oil Demand growth forecast to rebuild inventories depleted by the Iran war but cut its 2026 forecast for a sixth straight time. September CPI, due Wednesday, is expected at 3.7% from 3.4% in August, with the core rate at 2.5% from 2.4%.

  • Falling oil is easing yields a day before an Inflation print expected to accelerate, with producer prices and retail sales following Thursday.
  • Risk note: Saudi Arabia pumped 8.372 million barrels per day in September, up more than 2 million from August, so Supply is rising as demand forecasts fall.

7. MARKET SETUP: Dow Futures Rise 372 Points, Nasdaq Futures Fall 0.7%, Europe Climbs and Meta Launches Muse Wonder

Dow futures rose 372 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.7%, after a mixed Monday. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.7% and London's FTSE 100 0.8%. Meta (NASDAQ:META) released Muse Wonder, a large language model it says puts it at the frontier of AI development. Anthropic said on Monday that small AI models are “months away” from the capabilities needed to copy themselves across internet-connected devices such as smart ovens and Android TV boxes, though there is not yet a “fully rogue replicator.” Existing home sales and comments from Fed officials Tom Barkin and Susan Collins are due today.

  • Analysts expect S&P 500 third-quarter profits to have grown by nearly 30%, so banks' results set the tone for an earnings season with lofty expectations.
  • Risk note: the season will test consumer and Business health under higher rates, elevated costs and macroeconomic worries, with inflation data due this week.