S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.8% as Brent Crude fell 4.5% on signs that the US and Iran are seeking a diplomatic exit. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum for $115 billion, and Anthropic detailed a $3.5 billion share sale in Japan.

1. OIL: Brent Tumbles 4.5% to $108 as the US and Iran Seek a Diplomatic Exit Before Tuesday's Midterm Elections

Brent crude fell 4.5% to $108.38 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate more than 4% to $99.31, after Brent settled at almost $118 on Friday, its highest since April. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump has not decided on military action and would prefer to resolve the war with Iran "diplomatically." Iran signalled that a deal is still possible after talks mediated by Qatar, and its foreign minister said negotiators had drafted a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of an agreement. Trump says he will not strike Iran before Tuesday's midterms but may do so afterwards. OPEC+ held December output targets steady on Sunday, and Saudi Arabia's economy shrank 3.8% year on year in the third quarter.

  • OPEC+ sets its 2027 quotas on Nov. 29, which one analyst called the "much more important test," and the International Energy Agency has warned of excess Supply in 2027 if Gulf flows return to normal.
  • Risk note: Iran's supreme leader called for an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response" to any threat, and Ukraine has resumed attacking Russian refineries.

2. DEALS: Marvell Agrees to Buy Lumentum for $115 Billion in an All-Stock Deal as It Steps Up Its Challenge to Broadcom

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) will buy optical components maker Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) in an all-stock deal that values Lumentum at an Enterprise value of $115 billion, one of the largest of 2026. Lumentum holders will receive 4.500 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share, or about $1,132 a share, a 23.9% premium to the Oct. 28 close before speculation began. The companies expect more than $1 billion in annual cost savings and a boost to Marvell's adjusted Earnings in the first year, with closing expected in the first half of 2028. Marvell also said its fiscal third-quarter Revenue is in line with guidance, with the range narrowed to plus or minus 2% from 5%. Since talks were first reported, Lumentum has fallen about 8% and Marvell about 20% as chip stocks sold off after Intel's weak forecast. Marvell rose about 3% pre-market, and Lumentum 2% before being halted.

  • Nvidia invested $2 billion in each company earlier this year, and Lumentum stands to benefit from a proposed US ban on new Chinese optical transceivers.
  • Risk note: the deal needs Shareholder and regulatory approval, and Marvell holders will own about 67% of the combined company.

3. AI FUNDING: Anthropic Plans a $3.5 Billion Share Sale in Japan as Part of Its US Listing, While OpenAI Signs Deals in the UAE

Anthropic will sell up to 552.9 billion yen, or $3.5 billion, of shares to Japanese investors as part of its US public listing, a filing showed. The proceeds will fund working capital, operating expenses and capital spending. The filing did not state the size or valuation of the offering, though some investors have discussed a valuation of about $1.5 trillion. At SpaceX's June IPO, the largest ever, Japanese investors took $2.2 billion of the $75 billion raised. OpenAI has signed deals across energy, Investment and government in the United Arab Emirates as it seeks a $20 billion round co-led by UAE investors, and CEO Sam Altman met Abu Dhabi's crown prince.

  • Abu Dhabi's MGX co-led Anthropic's $30 billion raise in February and OpenAI's $122 billion raise in March.
  • Risk note: reports put OpenAI's round at $20 billion or as much as $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, and the war has tested the Middle East's appeal as an AI hub.

4. TELECOM: SpaceX Is in Talks to Buy EchoStar's Boost Mobile, Lifting EchoStar 3% and Pressuring T-Mobile

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is in talks to buy EchoStar's (NASDAQ:ECHO) Boost Mobile wireless service, or to gain access to its network, which Boost leases from AT&T (NYSE:T) and T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), a newspaper report said. The move would support Starlink Mobile's plan to build a hybrid satellite and ground network to challenge AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. EchoStar rose about 3.4% pre-market, T-Mobile slipped 2%, and AT&T and Verizon also edged lower. EchoStar had 7.38 million wireless subscribers at the end of the second quarter. Telecom stocks were already under pressure after SpaceX's $8 billion spectrum deal.

  • Elon Musk discussed the deal personally, meeting EchoStar chairman Charlie Ergen last month.
  • Risk note: Boost's network leases may not transfer without approval from AT&T and T-Mobile, and a fourth national carrier would need heavy spending on infrastructure and handset subsidies.

5. CRYPTO: Binance Users Withdraw a Net $3.6 Billion After the Exchange Resumes Service Following a $6.3 Billion Hack

Binance users withdrew a net $3.6 billion of Cryptocurrency after the exchange resumed service on Sunday, about 2% of the value held on its books before hackers stole $6.3 billion last week. The hackers are believed to be North Korean.

  • Binance has promised to reimburse customers whose cryptocurrency was taken.
  • Risk note: Binance is still limiting withdrawals, and its operations will restart only in phases.

6. PRE-MARKET MOVERS: Estee Lauder Gains 3.5%, CrowdStrike and Rivian Rise on Upgrades and Memory Stocks Rebound

Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) rose 3.5% after adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share beat 51 cents expected, on sales up 7% to $3.72 billion against $3.65 billion, and it raised its annual forecasts to fiscal 2027 Organic Sales growth of 4% to 5.5% and adjusted earnings of $3.20 to $3.45 per share. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) rose 3.4% after Deutsche Bank upgraded it to buy from hold, and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) gained 2%. Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) rose 3.8% after UBS upgraded it to buy, saying its sell-off is a buying opportunity ahead of an inflection in the R2 SUV ramp. Micron (NASDAQ:MU), Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) and Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) each rose about 2%, while Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) edged higher.

  • An analyst said the market is "still not fully appreciating the extent to which AI will expand the market for cybersecurity."
  • Risk note: affluent and younger shoppers have kept buying Le Labo, Tom Ford and Jo Malone London despite economic uncertainty.

7. MARKET SETUP: Futures Rise as Oil Tumbles and Tech Rebounds, With Apple, the Midterms and the Jobs Report Ahead

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, Nasdaq-100 futures 0.8% and Dow futures 310 points, or 0.6%, after a losing week in which selling in AI-linked tech stocks hit the major benchmarks. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both lost ground in October, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst losses since March 2025, while the Dow rose almost 2% as investors rotated into defensive areas. Apple reports after the close. Tuesday's midterms are expected to hand Democrats the House, with Senate control uncertain, and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday are expected to show 55,000 jobs added. The 10-year Treasury Yield is 4.914%, the 30-year 5.284% and the 2-year 4.589%. In Asia, South Korea's Kospi rose 2.38% to 5,859.08, Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.33% to 63,081.86 and China's CSI 300 0.79%, while Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.58%. Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%, the CAC 40 0.4% and the DAX 0.3%. One head of research said stocks "tend to stay steady regardless of which party gains control of Congress."

  • One strategist said "I just don't see anything broken with the AI trade fundamentally," adding that "technicals are another story."
  • Risk note: Job openings arrive Tuesday, ADP employment and Treasury auction sizes Wednesday, and productivity and jobless claims Thursday.