Key Highlights

  • September retail and food services sales rose 0.8% to $745.0 billion, above forecasts of 0.3%
  • August sales were revised up to $739.3 billion, a 1.3% monthly gain from an earlier 1.1% estimate
  • September sales climbed 6.3% year over year, with the July to September quarter up 5.5% annually
  • Gasoline station sales jumped 6.4% on higher prices, while sales excluding gas rose just 0.2%

The U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday that advance estimates of retail and food services sales for September reached $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and up 6.3% from September 2025, both adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. The reading came in well above a Dow Jones consensus forecast of roughly 0.3%, suggesting consumer spending has remained firmer than many economists had anticipated heading into the final quarter of the year.

August's figure was revised upward to $739.3 billion, a 1.3% monthly increase from an initial estimate of 1.1%, continuing a pattern of upward revisions seen in recent months. For the three month period from July through September, total sales rose 5.5% from the same period a year earlier, reinforcing the picture of a consumer sector that has continued to expand at a steady pace through the third quarter.

Gasoline Prices Drive Much of the Headline Gain

A significant portion of September's increase in sales value was attributable to higher prices rather than greater volume, particularly at gasoline stations, where sales surged 6.4% on the month. Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose a more modest 0.2%, and the so-called control group, which strips out food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gasoline stations and is closely tracked as an input into GDP calculations, advanced just 0.1% following a 1.2% rise in August.

Several categories posted solid gains beyond fuel, including furniture stores, which rose 1.3%, and food services and drinking places, up 1.1%. Health and personal care stores advanced 0.7%, electronics and appliance stores rose 0.6%, and food and beverage stores gained 0.4%. Nonstore retailers, which capture much of e-commerce activity, edged up 0.3%, while motor vehicle dealers posted a smaller 0.2% increase. These gains suggest that discretionary categories, alongside necessity-driven spending, contributed to the headline strength.

Weakness in Select Categories Points to Uneven Demand

Not all segments of retail shared in September's advance. Sales at miscellaneous store retailers fell sharply, down roughly 3%, while building materials and garden equipment stores declined 0.6%. Sporting goods, musical instrument, and book stores slipped 0.5%, and general merchandise stores edged down 0.1%. Clothing store sales were essentially flat on the month.

This divergence between strong headline growth and softer performance in several discretionary categories may indicate that consumer spending patterns are becoming more selective, with price-driven gains at the pump and in certain service categories masking softer demand elsewhere. Should gasoline prices moderate in coming months, the headline sales figure could soften even if underlying volumes hold steady, while continued strength in the control group would likely be viewed as a more durable signal of consumer health.

Investment Takeaway

September's retail sales report points to a consumer sector that remains resilient on a headline basis, aided considerably by higher gasoline prices rather than broad-based volume growth. The modest 0.1% advance in the control group suggests underlying momentum may be more measured than the topline figure implies. Whether this pace of spending continues is likely to depend on how energy prices, which have also featured prominently in recent inflation data, evolve through the fourth quarter alongside broader trends in household income and employment.