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The May Producer Price Index has given Federal Reserve officials yet another data point suggesting that the inflation environment is moving away from conditions that would justify rate cuts and toward conditions where a rate increase becomes defensible. The headline PPI rose 6.5% year-on-year …
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at the 3.50% to 3.75% range at its April 2026 meeting, as it has done at each meeting since December 2025. But with headline CPI rising above 4% in May and the Producer Price Index …
The Federal Reserve's June 16-17 FOMC meeting is set to produce a hold, but the content of the policy statement and the updated quarterly projections will be scrutinised far more intensely than the rate decision itself. The central question is whether the Fed signals …
Stagflation occupies a distinctive place in economic history because it combines two conditions that often move in opposite directions: weak growth and persistent inflation. The phenomenon became particularly associated with the 1970s, when energy shocks and structural economic challenges contributed to prolonged periods of …
The World Bank released its June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on Thursday, delivering its starkest assessment yet of the economic damage from the U.S.-Iran conflict. Global growth is now forecast at 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025 and the weakest rate …
The Iran war has delivered the aviation industry its worst cost shock since the COVID-19 pandemic, with jet fuel prices roughly doubling since the conflict began in February 2026. The International Air Transport Association has warned that the surge in energy costs will nearly …
Multi-asset sessions like Thursday's are among the most difficult to read in real time because the price signals from different asset classes appear to contradict each other. Oil rising alongside equities rising alongside a stable dollar alongside a recovering cryptocurrency is not an incoherent …
Consumer spending remains resilient in aggregate, but signs of moderation have become more visible across several categories. Households face higher interest payments on mortgages, credit cards and other forms of borrowing, reducing discretionary purchasing power.
The earnings reaction reflected investor sensitivity to expectations that had become increasingly ambitious after a prolonged technology rally. While demand for AI-related products remains substantial, the guidance suggested that revenue realization may not occur as quickly as some investors had anticipated.
The May 2026 PPI report is not simply an energy story. While the 10.7% month-on-month rise in energy prices was the dominant driver, the data reveals that commodity market disruption from the Iran war is now embedded across a broad range of industrial inputs, …
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