Wall Street Edges Higher, but Tech Futures Slide as Alphabet Earnings Disappoint; PCE Data in Focus

Index Update

US stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3%, the Nasdaq gaining 0.2% and the Dow edging above flat, after the Fed held rates steady and Chair Warsh described Inflation expectations as well anchored. Financial and semiconductor stocks advanced, with Micron and AMD gaining 5.9% and 3.2%, respectively. Alphabet rose 1.3% ahead of Earnings amid reports of a potential AI chip deal with OpenAI, while Apple fell 0.9% despite unveiling a revamped MacBook Pro.

Market Movers

Among the top-performing stocks of the session Ultralife Corporation. surged 145.44%, while AI OKTO CORP. rallied 109.69%. On the losing side, Bicara Therapeutics Inc. fell 44.16%, while F5, Inc. declined 20.43%, making them the weakest performers during the trading day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude fell toward USD 101 per barrel and Brent eased toward USD 114 on Thursday as renewed US–Iran diplomatic efforts raised hopes of limiting further escalation in the Middle East. Despite the pullback, WTI and Brent have gained more than 14% and 17% this month, respectively, amid clashes involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces and threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Meanwhile, regional energy flows have recovered to near prewar levels.

Gold fell toward USD 4,000 an ounce, while silver dropped below USD 53 to fresh 11-month lows on Thursday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady but offered limited policy guidance. Two officials favored a 25-basis-point hike, reinforcing expectations of a possible December increase amid energy-driven inflation. Investors await US PCE inflation data while assessing a proposal to reduce annual rate decisions and renewed Middle East diplomatic efforts, with elevated oil prices sustaining inflation concerns and pressure on precious metals.

Macro Updates

US PCE Inflation Expected to Accelerate in September

US headline PCE inflation is forecast to rise 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026, up from 0.3% in August, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.3%, versus 0.2% previously. Annual headline and Core Inflation are projected to reach 3.6% and 3.1%, respectively, keeping the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge above its 2% target, where it has remained since 2021.

US Dollar Holds Losses as Investors Await PCE Data

The US dollar index hovered around 102.1 on Thursday, retaining prior-session losses after the Federal Reserve held rates steady but offered limited policy guidance. Two officials supported a 25-basis-point hike, reinforcing expectations of a possible December increase amid energy-driven inflation. Investors await US PCE inflation data and policy decisions from the ECB and Bank of Japan, both expected to keep rates unchanged.

Bonds Commentary

The US 10-year Treasury Yield slipped below 5% on Thursday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady but provided limited policy guidance. Two policymakers favored a 25-basis-point hike, reinforcing expectations of a possible December increase amid energy-driven inflation. Investors await US PCE inflation data and policy decisions from the ECB and Bank of Japan, both expected to leave rates unchanged.

Futures Update

US stock futures declined on Thursday as Alphabet’s disappointing earnings renewed concerns over AI Investment costs. Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 1%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.5%. Alphabet dropped around 10% in after-hours trading on weaker-than-expected revenue, while Microsoft gained nearly 3% following strong results supported by Azure growth. The decline followed modest gains on Wednesday, when the Fed held rates steady despite two policymakers favoring a hike.

Stocks turned in a fairly subdued performance on Wednesday after sharp gains in the prior two sessions. The major averages hovered near the unchanged line for much of the day before closing slightly higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% (+21.38 points) to 7,743.98, but the advance faded short of its intraday high of 7,758.43 and remains capped below the 7,780–7,800 resistance zone, where sellers have repeatedly stepped in. The 14-day RSI at 53.00 sits only just above its 50.94 signal line, suggesting the rebound is fragile and momentum is limited. If the index slips back below the 21-day EMA (7,713.93) and the session low (7,718.37), it would suggest the recovery has failed. That could open the way to the 63-day EMA (7,663.00) first, and then the 7,580–7,600 support zone, where a breakdown would threaten the broader consolidation.