Key Highlights

● Lumber futures fell 0.19% to $517.03 per 1,000 board feet Friday.

● Lumber is down 2.54% on the month and 4.08% from a year ago.

● Combined US duties on most Canadian softwood were cut from 35.16% to 24.75%.

● The White House removed a 50% Tariff on Canadian plywood from 30 October.

Lumber futures fell 0.19% to US$517.03 per thousand board feet in Friday's session on 30 October, hovering close to their lowest level since September 2024. The market is caught between a housing sector that is not buying and a trade picture that has just shifted, with lower duties on Canadian softwood and a tariff on Canadian plywood removed from today.

The CME lumber contract (symbol LBR) covers 27,500 board feet, delivered in Chicago, and replaced the older Random Length Lumber contract, which was larger and delivered in Canada. The price is down US$0.97 on the day, 0.28% on the week, 2.54% on the month and 3.99% since the start of the year. It is 4.08% lower than a year ago and far below the record of US$1,711.20 set in May 2021.

Housing Is the Weight

Lumber lives and dies by new home construction, and that market is weak. Homebuilder confidence has fallen to its lowest in 14 years, with Mortgage rates near three-year highs, which keeps buyers on the sidelines and builders cautious about starting new projects.

Producers are acting on it. One large North American producer reported a third-quarter net loss of US$80 million on sales of US$1.363 billion on 28 October, and cited continued weakness in Demand for wood products used in new home construction as it announced indefinite curtailments at an OSB mill in Alabama and a lumber mill in Arkansas. It expects 2026 shipments at the low end of its range and an Impairment loss of US$200 million to US$220 million in the fourth quarter.

Duties Come Down, Tariffs Stay High

Trade policy is the second thread. The US Commerce Department's final results of its seventh administrative reviews cut the combined antidumping and countervailing duty rate on most Canadian softwood from about 35.16% to 24.75%. A separate 10% tariff, linked to a national-security investigation, takes the total burden cited by homebuilding groups to 34.75%.

Individual producers face different rates. Company-specific combined rates in the reviews range from about 20% to above 31%, so the benefit of the cut varies by producer.

The plywood move is new. The White House removed a 50% tariff on Canadian plywood from 30 October, while tariffs on softwood lumber remain elevated. That could make plywood a cheaper substitute in some construction uses. The newer 50% tariffs introduced on 22 August do not apply to softwood lumber or OSB.

Supply Is Already Adjusting

Low prices usually bring Supply cuts, and that is what mills are now delivering. Indefinite curtailments in Alabama and Arkansas take capacity off the market in the southern United States.

The price has held in the high US$510s to low US$520s in recent weeks, so the market is waiting for a change in housing or supply.

Lumber Watch: Housing Data, Duty Notices and Mill Curtailments

Housing starts and building permits will show whether construction is stabilising, and mortgage rates and builder sentiment surveys will show whether demand might follow. Further curtailment announcements will show how much supply producers are prepared to remove, and Federal Register notices will confirm the duty changes in force.

Prices could find support if more mills curtail, if housing activity recovers, if mortgage rates fall or if duties rise. They could stay under pressure if builder sentiment stays weak, if rates stay high, if lower trade barriers bring more Canadian supply into the US or if buyers switch toward plywood.