Key Highlights

● December soybean meal settled at $329.30 per short ton on 29 October, a two-month low.

● Soybeans rose 0.64% to 1,227.60 US cents a bushel in Friday's session.

● The board crush Margin was $2.27 per bushel, with December soybean oil steady.

● Weekly meal export sales of 348,000 tons left commitments 4% below last year.

December soybean meal futures settled at US$329.30 per short ton on 29 October, the latest meal settlement available, a two-month low that broke below the 100-day moving average. On Friday 30 October soybeans rose 0.64% to 1,227.60 US cents a bushel, a small bounce for the complex that left meal still under pressure. The weakness matters to crushers such as Bunge (NYSE:BG) and ADM (NYSE:ADM), which sell both meal and oil from every bushel.

The broader complex is soft: soybeans are down 2.28% on the week and 4.37% on the month, though up 19.15% so far this year.

Oil Is Carrying the Crush

The most useful way to read meal is through the crush spread. A bushel of soybeans yields meal, the larger product by volume, and oil, the more valuable one by weight. With meal at a two-month low and December soybean oil at 65.64 cents per pound, up 8 points on 29 October, more of the crush value now rests on oil than earlier in the season. The board crush margin was US$2.27 per bushel, down 8 cents on the day.

Why Meal Has Slipped

The explanation reported for the latest drop was technical. Chart-based selling inside existing downtrends pushed meal through its 100-day Moving Average and into a two-month low. Behind that sits a large oilseed supply: the USDA raised its 2026/27 US soybean forecast by 1% to a record 4.56 billion bushels, with a record Yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, and the harvest was 79% complete as of 25 October. More beans mean more crushing, and meal is the bulkier product of the crush.

The Export Gap

Overseas Demand for the meal itself was described as in line with expectations. Weekly meal sales were 348,000 tons, but year-to-date commitments are down 4% from a year earlier, while the USDA forecasts an 11% rise. That gap is a point of caution for anyone counting on steady foreign buying.

Beans are firmer than meal on the export side. Chinese commitments reached 15.07 million tonnes after sales of 1.627 million tonnes, with a further 5.8 million tonnes booked to unknown buyers. Sinograin plans to auction 400,000 tonnes of soybeans on Tuesday 3 November, after a previous auction sold about 172,000 tonnes, roughly one-third of the amount offered.

Funds Still Hold a Large Long

Managed money was net long about 450,000 contracts across the soybean complex, down from a record 558,000. Meal open interest fell by 7,700 contracts on 29 October. Funds have reduced exposure but remain heavily invested, which leaves the market sensitive to further selling.

What It Means for Bunge and ADM

Bunge crushes oilseeds and sells meal and oil. On 29 October it reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted Earnings of US$2.56 per share on net sales of US$23.804 billion, and kept its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook at US$9.25 to US$9.75 per share. The company said its Soybean Processing and Refining outlook was slightly lower than before. Lower meal prices reduce the value of one output, but processing margins depend on the whole crush spread, on bean costs and on oil.

ADM is a large US oilseed processor and is expected to report third-quarter results on Tuesday 3 November. Meal prices, crush margins and demand for soybean oil are the areas to watch.

Meal is also a cost for livestock feeders. Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) buys meat produced with feed ingredients, so cheaper meal would normally lower feed costs for the producers in its Supply chain, though meat prices and other costs also drive margins.

Meal Watch: Crush Spreads, Export Sales and ADM's Report

The Sinograin auction on Tuesday 3 November is the next dated event, followed by ADM's expected results the same day. Weekly USDA export sales and the EIA ethanol report are routine releases that can move the grain complex.

Meal could find support if crushers raise processing rates to capture strong oil margins, if overseas buyers step up purchases or if technical selling runs its course. Pressure could continue if the record US crop is confirmed, if crush volumes outpace meal demand or if commitments stay below the USDA export forecast. A weaker Brazilian real makes Brazilian beans cheaper for overseas buyers, which can compete with US supply.