Equity futures fell as the 10-year Treasury Yield held near 5.32%, close to its highest since 2002, after Fed Governor Waller said he anticipates "additional hikes", while Brent Crude jumped above $105 on Iran reports. PepsiCo trimmed its outlook, Amazon replaces its budget Fire tablets with Alexa models, and Helen of Troy surges on a raised forecast.

1. BONDS/FED: Treasury Yields Hold Near 2002 Highs as Waller Sees "Additional Hikes" Ahead of a $22 Billion 30-Year Auction

The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 4 basis points to 5.32%, the 30-year more than 2 basis points to 5.687% and the 2-year more than 5 basis points to 4.818%. Waller said "I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of Inflation to our 2 percent goal," adding that they "do not need to come at consecutive meetings." Yields hit 5.35% on Wednesday before the $39 billion 10-year auction, which drew central-bank Demand of over 80% against a 72.4% average, pulled them back below 5.29%. Investors expect a hold on Oct. 28 and a hike on Dec. 9. The Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds after midday.

  • The September minutes signalled no move this month but a possible hike by December, so Waller's flexible timing fits the Dec. 9 pricing.
  • Risk note: the 30-year auction is the next test of demand for US debt, and a weak bid would push the 30-year yield toward its 24-year high.

2. OIL: Brent Jumps 5% Above $105 as the US Reportedly Weighs Large-Scale Military Operations in Iran

Brent crude for December delivery gained 5.2% to $105.36 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate for November advanced 5.1% to $92.75. Reports say President Trump and his national security team have discussed restarting large-scale US military operations in Iran in the coming weeks, including strikes before next month's midterm elections. Iran-backed Houthis recently targeted Saudi airports, while Tehran has attacked tankers in the Hormuz Strait. A markets consultant said any escalation affecting Hormuz traffic or Saudi energy infrastructure "would threaten physical Supply and could lift prices further."

  • Higher oil feeds the inflation concern behind Waller's comments, tying the energy spike to the yield move in read 1.
  • Risk note: gold is near 2-month lows as yields hit multi-decade highs, so equities face oil and bond pressure with no haven bid.

3. EARNINGS: PepsiCo Cuts Its 2026 Outlook as North America Lags, While Helen of Troy Raises Guidance and Levi Strauss Misses on Sales

PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) rose about 2% pre-market after third-quarter Revenue beat expectations, though it lowered its 2026 organic revenue forecast to about 3% from 2% to 4% and cut core Earnings growth to 1% to 2% from the low end of 4% to 6%. Its CFO said North America recovery "is taking more time than we planned," with core Operating Margin down 35 basis points and beverage volumes down 2%. Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) rose about 19% from a $25.32 close after adjusted earnings of 79 cents per share beat the 50 cents expected and it raised its outlook to $3.60 to $4.15 from $3.25 to $3.75, though revenue of $440.9 million narrowly missed. Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI) fell nearly 3% as revenue of $1.61 billion slightly missed on weaker US and European direct sales. Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) rose 1% on revenue of nearly $342 million, up 322%, and Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) posted record revenue of $257.1 million, up 23%. AngioDynamics (NASDAQ:ANGO) beat with a loss of 4 cents per share against 10 cents expected, while NovaGold (NYSE American:NG) fell about 0.8% to $6.31 after a wider loss of 8 cents.

  • Helen of Troy rose on guidance despite a revenue miss, though $26.9 million of Tariff refunds lifted its margin and only about $4 million survives reinvestment.
  • Risk note: PepsiCo's 100-basis-point margin target over 3 years rests on a North America recovery, with retailers shifting shelf space to private labels and Levi's weaker direct sales showing uneven consumer demand.

4. AMAZON: Amazon Ditches Its Budget Fire Tablets for Alexa Models Priced From $230 to $550

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) unveiled 8-inch, 11-inch and 12-inch Alexa tablets starting at $230 and running to $550, available for preorder today and shipping Oct. 14. The $550 Alexa Tablet 12 Pro costs more than 3 times the $155 Fire HD 10, and puts it in line with Apple's iPad range of $449 to $1,199. The devices run Google's Android rather than Fire OS, and an "On-Screen Intelligence" feature lets users ask Alexa to act on what is on their screen. Amazon will keep supporting Fire devices but is no longer making new units.

  • Selling devices at or near cost to drive purchases of other services is giving way to charging more, as with the pricier Echo speakers and Alexa+ for non-Prime members.
  • Risk note: Amazon denied that rising memory prices drove the higher price tag, yet its devices chief called building a premium tablet during the shortage "quite tricky".

5. AI CHIPS: Samsung's Profit Estimate Jumps Nearly Nine-Fold as Broadcom Works to Arrange Over $50 Billion for OpenAI Chips

Samsung estimated profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.1 billion) for the quarter through September, nearly 9 times last year's, driven by AI demand for its memory chips. Its shares have more than doubled this year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) reported September revenue growth of 54.6% year over year, above expectations, though shares fell about 1%. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) traded nearly 2% lower pre-market after a report that it is working to arrange more than $50 billion of financing tied to the custom AI chips it is developing with OpenAI.

  • Samsung's profit and TSMC's revenue growth show AI chip demand still accelerating, even as the memory shortage lifts device prices.
  • Risk note: a $50 billion financing for one customer's custom chips adds to the Debt that AI infrastructure now requires, so the terms matter more than the headline.

6. PRE-MARKET MOVERS: Wolfspeed Jumps 15% on a $1.5 Billion Defense Loan and Palantir Gains After a Goldman Sachs Upgrade

Wolfspeed (NYSE:WOLF) surged more than 15% on a conditional $1.5 billion, 30-year Defense Department loan, with the Pentagon receiving warrants for up to 7.5% of the company. Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) gained 2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to buy from neutral with a $230 target, 18.5% above Wednesday's $194.12 close. Haemonetics (NYSE:HAE) popped 8% after CSL said it expects to complete the rollout of its plasmapheresis platform across the US by the end of 2027. Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) fell about 1% after naming a new chief product officer and chief operating officer.

  • Goldman Sachs cites more government contracts and the shift to sovereign AI for Palantir, while the Pentagon's stake in Wolfspeed shows government Capital moving into domestic chipmaking.
  • Risk note: Wolfspeed's loan is conditional and the terms are proposed, so a 15% jump is pricing a deal that is not yet final.

7. MARKET SETUP: Futures Fall as Yields and Oil Climb, Europe and Asia Slide and Jobless Claims Stay Low

Dow futures fell 347 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.6%, with Intel and Marvell down more than 2%. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.85%, France's CAC 40 0.81%, Germany's DAX 0.77% and Italy's FTSE MIB 0.98%. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.42% lower, South Korea's Kospi 2.62%, Australia's ASX 200 0.77% and China's CSI 300 1.09%. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 against 200,000 expected, with continuing claims up 17,000 to 1.72 million. ECB minutes show officials keeping Options open after September's first hike since 2023.

  • S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are expected to grow about 30%, a third straight quarter above 25%, which investors see as fuel that can sustain the rally despite higher rates.
  • Risk note: with claims near the lowest since July, a tight labor market supports the case for more Fed hikes, so strong earnings must outrun yields at 24-year highs.