US Market Update: Oil Rebounds as Rate Hike Concerns Weigh on Futures

Index Update

US stocks rose on Friday as lower oil prices eased pressure on Treasury yields. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Dow added 479 points, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%. Microsoft and semiconductor equipment shares advanced, while Meta and Oracle declined. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.1%, while the Dow slipped 103 points.

Market Movers

Among the top-performing stocks of the session Masonglory Limited. surged 309.64%, while INLIF LIMITED rallied 72.88%. On the losing side, WidePoint Corporation. fell 50.59%, while LeonaBio, Inc. declined 34.87%, making them the weakest performers during the trading day.

Commodities Update

Oil prices rebounded more than 4% on Monday, with WTI rising above USD 96 a barrel and Brent above USD 108, as uncertainty over US–Iran talks kept Supply risks elevated. Iran continues to seek the lifting of the US naval blockade and oil sanctions before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, terms President Trump has rejected, although he said talks could resume this week. Reported Houthi attacks toward Saudi Arabia added to concerns about regional oil infrastructure.

Gold fell below USD 4,200 an ounce and silver dropped toward USD 61 on Monday, both reaching seven-week lows. Stalled US–Iran talks kept oil prices elevated, adding to Inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Investors are awaiting US inflation and jobs data this week for clearer signals on the Fed’s next move.

Macro Updates

Dollar index Near Two-Month High

The dollar index climbed to around 101.1 on Monday as rising oil prices and the US–Iran impasse increased Demand for the greenback and reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Investors are awaiting this week’s US inflation and employment data for clearer signals on the Fed’s next move.

Bonds Commentary

The 10-year US Treasury Yield rose to around 5.2% on Monday, its highest level since July 2007, as stronger Business spending and rising inflation expectations reinforced bets on further Federal Reserve tightening. Markets priced in roughly a 66% chance of an October rate hike, while investors awaited this week’s PCE inflation reading and US jobs report for further guidance.

Futures Update

US stock futures fell on Monday as rising oil prices and Treasury yields renewed concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve rate hikes. S&P 500 futures declined 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1%, and Dow futures slipped around 190 points. Major technology stocks also weakened in premarket trading, led by Intel, Meta, AMD and Micron. Investors are awaiting this week’s PCE inflation reading and US jobs report for further clues on the economy and interest rates.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is showing a slightly bearish intraday bias, trading at 7,743.41, despite being up 0.51% on the session. Price is approaching the 7,750–7,800 resistance zone, where recent rallies have faced selling pressure, while momentum remains moderate with RSI at 56.70. A failure to sustain above 7,750 could encourage profit-taking and a move toward the 7,680–7,700 support area near the 21-day EMA. A break below 7,680 would weaken the short-term setup further and could expose 7,600. Until a clear breakout above resistance occurs, the index may remain vulnerable to range-bound trading with a mild downside bias.