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US-Iran Peace Proposals: A Structural Impasse Markets Are Mispricing

The diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran is frequently framed as a stalled negotiation awaiting the right political moment. That framing is analytically insufficient. The current exchange of proposals, the US 15-point framework on one side and Iran's 10-point counter-framework on the other, does …

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

Iran Ceasefire Hangs by a Thread as U.S. Military Holds Its Position

President Donald Trump issued a direct warning to Tehran on April 9, confirming that all U.S. ships, aircraft, military personnel, ammunition, and weaponry would remain in and around Iran until the recently brokered ceasefire is fully complied with. The consequences of non-compliance, in his …

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

When Trump Trades Unravel: What Markets Got Wrong About Policy Risk

Financial markets are efficient processors of information, but imperfect readers of political intent. The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 triggered directional bets across equities, currencies, and fixed income. Investors priced in deregulation, fiscal expansion, protectionist trade policy, and …

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

U.S. Long-Term Unemployment Surges: Is a Recession Already Underway?

The headline unemployment rate rarely tells the full story. At 4.3%, it appears benign. But beneath that figure, a more troubling structural deterioration is taking hold. The number of Americans unemployed for 15 weeks or more has climbed to 3.3 million, its highest reading …

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

Trump’s Iran Reversal: Tactical De-escalation or Strategic Credibility Risk?

The abrupt reversal in U.S. policy toward Iran marks a defining moment in the current geopolitical cycle. After issuing extreme threats, President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire, signaling a rapid shift from escalation to de-escalation.

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

Tesla’s Affordable EV Reset: A Strategic Pivot Back to the Mass Market?

Tesla appears to be re-engaging with its long-standing ambition of producing affordable electric vehicles. After pivoting toward autonomous technologies and robotics in recent years, the company is now reportedly developing a smaller, lower-cost SUV aimed at expanding its addressable market.

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

Oil Rebounds as Ceasefire Fails to Restore Supply Flows

Oil markets are recalibrating expectations as the initial optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire gives way to operational realities. While the agreement temporarily reduced geopolitical tensions, it has not translated into a meaningful restoration of energy flows.

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

The “Forever War” Doctrine: Israel’s Strategic Shift Redefines Middle East Risk

Even as diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran attempt to stabilize the Middle East, developments on the ground suggest a fundamentally different trajectory. Israel’s evolving military strategy indicates preparation for a prolonged and structurally embedded conflict rather than a near-term resolution.

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

Middle East Ceasefire Under Threat: Lebanon Strikes Reignite Energy and Market Risks

The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East is already showing signs of strain as Israel expands military operations into Lebanon, raising questions about the scope and durability of the agreement.

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026

Pension Funds Double Down on Private Credit: Long-Term Conviction Amid Short-Term Stress

North American pension funds are reaffirming their commitment to private credit even as the asset class faces mounting scrutiny. Recent redemption pressures and liquidity concerns have raised questions about the sustainability of the sector’s rapid growth.

Nitish Kishor | 09 April 2026
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