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The dollar's rebound tracks the repricing of US rates. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on September 16, and CME FedWatch priced 72.5 percent odds of another 25 basis point hike on October 28 as of September 28, …

Kevin Warsh took office as Chair in May 2026 as Trump's choice, and his first major policy test produced the first rate increase in three years. Trump responded by urging the Fed to lower rates fast. He said he had told Warsh he might …

The 5-year auction was the clearer miss. Its 2.212 bid-to-cover ratio was down from 2.371 at the prior sale, and indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign and institutional demand, took 54.31 percent versus 61.51 percent before. Direct bidders took 29.92 percent, leaving primary dealers …

The August report broke a long stretch of weak hiring. Payrolls rose 162,000 against a prior 12-month average of just 31,000, and July swung from a reported loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, with 7.0 …

A bear steepener occurs when long yields rise faster than short yields, and that is what the data show. Between September 22 and September 25, the 2-year rose 10 basis points, from 4.71 percent to 4.81 percent, while the 10-year climbed 21 basis points, …

The weekly claims report, released September 24, remains the most timely read on layoffs, and it describes very little firing. On an unadjusted basis, claims totaled 163,811, up 10,243 or 6.7 percent from the prior week. Continuing claims, a gauge of how easily laid-off …

The repricing since the September 16 hike to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent has been rapid, and traders now treat a second straight increase as the base case. With December odds at 94.5 percent, the debate is about timing rather than direction. Front-end Treasuries …